Baccarat Macau Pattern

• Appendices
• Baccarat Analysis
• Miscellaneous

Aug 20, 2020 However, while studying the pattern of Banker and Player wins won't help you, counting cards will, a little. To avoid confusion, when writing about baccarat, I will use all lower-case when referring to the one playing the game and capitalize Player when referring to the bet. Mar 13, 2018 Stephen R. Tabone is an English Writer from Great Britain. He is a casino games professional pattern player and outcomes systemiser. He is the Author of Bestselling Baccarat books, ‘The Ultimate Silver Bullet Proof Baccarat Winning Strategy 2.1’ and ‘The Ultimate Golden Secret Baccarat Winning Strategy 3.0’. The pattern of the patterns represents the intrinsic beauty of the game of baccarat and is the reason it is the world’s grand casino game. Let us resolve to appreciate the pattern of the patterns of baccarat and play each shoe in harmony with the intrinsic unalterable nature of the game. Never never never never bet the tie bet. Pinpointing Patterns. Baccarat crystal, such as glassware, typically has a pattern name that may be easy to forget if you do not have the original packaging the crystal came in. Beautiful gifts. Baccarat is a French luxury brand internationally recognized as the leader for high-end, exclusive crystal products. Since it was founded in 1764, the Company, whose manufactory is based in Baccarat, Lorraine in Eastern France, has been synonymous with unique expertise and a symbol of French art de vivre.

Introduction

Baccarat Macau Pattern Guide

Baccarat is a game steeped in superstition. The vast majority of players keep careful track of the shoe history, either on paper or with the aid of screens that show every hand since the shoe began. There are various ways of recording this information. The companies that market the screens that display the shoe history present it in various ways, according to the most popular methods of trying to define patterns.

Before going further, let me give my usual comment on notation. When referring to an actual bet, I use capital letters. When referring to the player playing the game, I use lower case. I invite the rest of the world to follow this convention, to help avoid confusion.

For those who don't know me, let me take a moment to say that all this effort at trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand, and the past history does not matter. Now before the perfectionists out there write to me, yes, I know if you had the use of a computer, a card counter could make computer-perfect decisions according to the composition of the remaining cards, which would very rarely result in an advantage on some bets. However, that is not what I'm talking about it. I'm saying that trying to find a pattern in past Player and Banker wins is as useless as predicting the next color in roulette (on a fair wheel) according to past reds and blacks.

Although I personally don't play baccarat, I have wondered for years about some of the tables in those displays of the shoe history. The staff at the Venetian has been very helpful in helping me understand, so that I may enlighten the rest of the world. So, with the introductions out of the way, let's get started. Here is a picture of a typical sign, seen at the Venetian. There are various components of display, which I will address individually.

How to Read Them

Bead Plate

This section above is called the 'bead plate.' It used to be that players could buy a tray with cubes with sides noting Player, Banker, and Tie wins. Wins are recorded as follows:

• Blue = Player win
• Red = Banker win
• Green = Tie win

The player starts in the upper left hand corner and makes his way down. When he reaches the bottom row, he moves over one column to the right and back to the top row.

Big Road

The next section, pictured above, is called the 'Big Road.' This primarily keeps track of Player and Banker wins. Tie and pair wins are also noted with slashes and dots. To be specific, a tie is noted with a green line through the previous Player or Banker win. A Player pair is noted with a blue dot in the lower right corner of the hand it occurred in. A Banker pair with a red dot in upper left. In the interest of simplicity, in this example there were only Player and Banker wins.

Much like in the Bead Plate, the player starts in the upper left, as well as marking Player wins in blue, and Banker wins in red. However, instead of a solid circle, with a Chinese character in the middle, the Big Road has only the blue and red outlines of circles.

Unlike the Bead Plate, in the Big Road the player starts at the top of a new column with each change in Player and Banker winning. Note the grid is six rows deep. In the event there are seven or more consecutive Player or Banker wins, the results will move to the right, creating what is known as a dragon tail. In this example that never happens, as there was never more than four consecutive wins on the same side.

Big Eye Boy

With the next table, it is no longer so obvious what is going on, and it is here where I started to need help. As mentioned before, baccarat players are a very superstitious bunch. While the strategies they use to find patterns can be a complicated topic, one basic truth is they like predictability and repeating patterns. For example, if the last 12 hands were BBBPPPBBBPPP, I would bet that everybody at the table would bet on the Banker the next hand. Note how wins happen in groups of three. The Big Eye Boy table is useful in gauging how repetitive the shoe is. Red entries are a sign of repetition, and blue entries are a sign of a chaotic, 'choppy' shoe. It is important to note that in the Big Eye Boy table, blue and red are not associated with Player and Banker wins, as they are on the previous two tables.

The first entry in the Big Eye Boy table is the hand after the first entry in the second column of the Big Road, so that there is enough information to judge if a pattern is developing or not. Here is where the air starts to get thin, so pay attention. Every entry in the Big Eye Boy table, as well as the next two tables, will refer to a specific entry in the Big Road. Each entry in the Big Eye Boy is recorded as follows:

1. If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the previous two columns in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Big Eye Boy. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
   
2. If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Big Eye Boy. Otherwise, mark a blue.
   In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move one cell to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

In the event the Big Road forms a dragon tail, for purposes of the Big Eye Boy as well as the Small Road and Cockroach Pig, assume that the Big Road is infinitely deep, and ask yourself what would have happened under that assumption.

Note that if the Big Road consisted entirely of an alternating pattern of x Player wins with x Banker wins, then the Big Eye Boy would be entirely red.

To help with this part, I explain below every entry in the Big Eye Boy table that follows. I put the results in Excel so you could refer to the exact points in the grid I'm referring to.

For example, the first entry shows cell A1 on the Big Eye Boy table. This corresponds to the same hand represented in cell C1 of the Big Road table. Since cell C1 is the beginning of a new column, we check if the previous two columns are equal in length. They are, so we color the Big Eye Boy red for cell A1.

Big Road

Big Eye Boy

Big Eye Boy — Play by Play

Big Eye Boy Cell	Big Road Cell	Color	Reason
A1
B1
A1	C1	Red	Columns A and B equal in length
B1	C2	Blue	B1 and B2 don't match
B2	D1	Blue	Columns B and C unequal in length
B3	E1	Blue	Columns C and D unequal in length
B4	E2	Blue	D1 and D2 don't match
C1	E3	Red	D2 and D3 match
C2	E4	Red	D3 and D4 match
D1	F1	Blue	Columns D and E unequal in length
D2	G1	Blue	Columns E and F unequal in length
E1	HI	Red	Columns F and G equal in length
E2	I1	Red	Columns G and H equal in length
F1	I2	Blue	H1 and H2 don't match
F2	J1	Blue	Columns H and I unequal in length
G1	J2	Red	I1 and I2 match
H1	J3	Blue	I2 and I3 don't match
H2	K1	Blue	Columns I and J unequal in length
I1	K2	Red	J1 and J2 match
I2	K3	Red	J2 and J3 match
I3	L1	Red	Columns J and K equal in length
I4	L2	Red	K1 and K2 match
J1	M1	Blue	Columns K and L unequal in length
J2	N1	Blue	Columns L and M unequal in length
J3	N2	Blue	M1 and M2 don't match
K1	N3	Red	M2 and M3 match
L1	O1	Blue	Columns M and N unequal in length
M1	O2	Red	N1 and N2 match
N1	P1	Blue	Columns N and O unequal in length
O1	P2	Red	O1 and O2 equal
O2	Q1	Red	Columns O and P equal in length
P1	R1	Blue	Columns P and Q unequal in length
Q1	S1	Red	Columns Q and R equal in length
R1	S2	Blue	R1 and R2 don't match
S1	S3	Red	R2 and R3 match
T1	T1	Blue	Columns R and S unequal in length
U1	T2	Red	S1 and S2 match
U2	T3	Red	S2 and S3 match
U3	U1	Red	Columns S and T equal in length
U4	U2	Red	T1 and T2 match
V1	V1	Red	Columns T and U equal in length
W1	V2	Red	U1 and U2 match
W2	W1	Blue	Columns U and V unequal in length
X1	X1	Blue	Columns V and W unequal in length
Y1	Y1	Red	Columns W and X equal in length
Z1	Y2	Blue	X1 and X2 don't match
AA1	Y3	Red	X2 and X3 match
AB1	Z1	Blue	Columns X and Y unequal in length
AB2	AA1	Blue	Columns Y and Z unequal in length
AB3	AA2	Blue	AA1 and AA2 don't match
AB4	AB1	Blue	Columns Z and AA unequal in length
AB5	AC1	Blue	Columns AA and AB unequal in length
AB6	AC2	Blue	AB1 and AB2 don't match
AC1	AC3	Red	AB2 and AB3 match
AD1	AD1	Blue	Columns AB and AC unequal in length
AD2	AE1	Blue	Columns AC and AD unequal in length
AD3	AE2	Blue	AD1 and AD2 don't match
AE1	AE3	Red	AD2 and AD3 match
AE2	AE4	Red	AD3 and AD4 match
AF1	AF1	Blue	Columns AD and AE unequal in length
AF2	AG1	Blue	Columns AE and AF unequal in length
AG1	AH1	Red	Columns AF and AG equal in length
AG2	AI1	Red	Columns AG and AH equal in length
AG3	AJ1	Red	Columns AH and AI equal in length
AH1	AJ2	Blue	AI1 and AI2 don't match
AI1	AJ3	Red	AI2 and AI3 match
AJ1	AK1	Blue	Columns AI and AJ unequal in length
AJ2	AL1	Blue	Columns AJ and AK unequal in length

Small Road

The next table, in the bottom left of the display, is the 'Small Road.' The Small Road works exactly like the Big Eye Boy, except it skips the column to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Small Road must wait until the entry after the first entry in the third column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Small Road is recorded.

1. If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the first and third columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Small Road. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
2. If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell two cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Small Road. Otherwise, mark a blue.
   In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move two cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

The Small Road in the sign pictured was too big to fit in the grid, so the first four columns dropped off. They would have been BBRRBR.

Cockroach Pig

The next table, in the bottom right of the display, is 'Cockroach Pig.' The Cockroach works exactly like the Small Road, except it skips two columns to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Cockroach Pig must wait until the entry after the first entry in the fourth column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Cockroach Pig is recorded.

1. If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road then compare the first and fourth columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Cockroach Pig. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
2. If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell three cells to the left of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Cockroach Pig. Otherwise, mark a blue.
   In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move three cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

Other Statistics

Finally, the above picture shows the upper right part of the display. The left part shows overall shoe statistics for how often each bet won. This is not a very realistic example, as I put in Player and Banker wins only, for purposes of example. The right part shows what will happen on the Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig according to whether the next hand is a Player or Banker win.

Links

Fate in the cards: understanding baccarat trends (part 1) and (part 2) by Andrew W Scott

Acknowledgements

Thanks to the friendly and helpful staff at the Venetian for suffering my many questions about this topic and letting me take pictures of their sign.

Written by: Michael Shackleford

Baccarat isn’t typically known as a target for casino cheaters. Instead, blackjack, craps, roulette, and slot machines grab the headlines regarding cheating.

But you may be surprised to find that baccarat also draws its fair share of scammers. Baccarat cheats use a variety of means to gain an edge on casinos and win big.

But I still find any type of casino cheating to be an interesting subject. The same holds true with baccarat, which has its own unique cheating methods.

I’m going to discuss each of these techniques below. I’ll also cover baccarat edge-sorting incidents involving famed gambler Phil Ivey and why the courts felt that he was cheating.

False Shuffle

Richard Marcus, a former baccarat dealer and all-around casino cheat, introduced false shuffling to the gaming world.

The gist is that the dealer shuffles the cards so that they follow a pre-arranged order.

The accomplice can then raise or lower their wager based on the upcoming order. Here are the steps to performing a false shuffle:

1. The accomplice(s) records a group, or “slug,” of cards during a baccarat shoe. The slug will feature 40-60 cards that are recorded in the order that they’re played and put into the discard tray
2. When the 6- or 8-deck shoe has been dealt, the dealer will fast shuffle the cards. The idea is to keep the slug together through a series of convincing but fake shuffle actions
3. The accomplice uses the list of recorded cards to spot the slug cards as they’re dealt. They signal other players (if applicable) at this point
4. The cheaters can accurately determine 8-10 hand results once they identify the slug coming into play
5. They’ll bet on either the banker or player hand, depending upon what cards are coming next
6. Players often bet the table max to take full advantage of their insider knowledge

False shuffling is harder than it sounds because a perfect mix of factors must come together. But a dealer and their accomplices can develop a solid system with enough practice.

Here are some pointers on making sure each facet of a false shuffle works:

• Recording cards– The accomplice marks down a group of winning hands (slug) on a baccarat scorecard. Casinos encourage players to keep track of winning hands, allowing cheaters to use this as a guise while they’re tracking the slug
• Choosing a card slug– The slug is almost always at the beginning or end of a shoe. This way the dealer knows exactly what group of cards to false shuffle and keep intact
• False shuffle– It doesn’t take a world-class dealer to pull off a false shuffle. But they do need to practice this technique to both keep the slug intact and avoid drawing casino suspicion
• Identifying the slug– With the slug recorded from the previous shoe, a cheater can look for a specific group of cards to come out in reverse order. For example, K, 6, 9, 10 would be dealt as 10, 9, 6, K after the false deal
• Making big bets– The recorder can either bet solo or signal a group of players to place larger wagers. Acting as a group is more profitable because there are extra players to take advantage of the positive expected value (+EV)

A cheating group can wager on the same outcome, whether it be the player or banker hand during the slug. They can also stick around after the slug and make offsetting bets to continue selling the scam.

Offsetting bets only cost the cheaters the 5% banker commission each hand if there’s equal action on the player and banker.

False Shuffling with Electronic Devices

Baccarat players can use a more advanced method of false shuffling that includes devices. The devices give cheaters a discreet way to communicate with each other about the slug and when to bet more.

A group of cheaters known as the Tran Organization used this technique to win millions from casinos in the mid-2000s. The Tran Organization also bribed dealers to perform false shuffles in mini-baccarat games.

This group worked like other false shuffling cheaters, including having someone record card slugs. But where they differed is by using a hidden transmitter (microphone) and mobile phones to relay the card slugs to the group.

The information is also relayed into a computer program to ensure more accuracy in identifying a slug. Players can then hear the slug order through an in-ear cellular communicator.

Note:

Involving electronic devices makes this a more complex operation. But it paid off, because the Tran Organization made $7 million over a five-year span. One occasion saw them earn $868,000 in just 90 minutes.

The Tran Organization also used techniques to avoid drawing attention to themselves. For example, most of the group members would cash out less than $10,000 to avoid having to report winnings to the IRS.

The group was eventually caught when trying to bribe an undercover agent in 2006.

19 members of the Tran Organization were charged with counts of conspiracy to steal money and conspiracy to travel in interstate in aid of racketeering.

In all, 31 defendants pleaded guilty to either directly participating in the ring or aiding and abetting.

Swapping Cards

Big baccarat tables give players the chance to handle cards, which makes for the possibility of swapping cards. This scam can be pulled off by a group or solo player.

In either case, a player needs to obtain a card from the deck when it’s their turn to cut. They can do this using double-sided sticky tape underneath their sleeve, allowing them to take a card off the top without everybody noticing.

Another way to do this involves putting a thin container inside of a long-sleeve shirt. A cheater can take their cards, conceal the hand, and then slip one into the container with precision.

Anybody using a container must also take a card from the deck during the cut. They then rotate the card into their hand and remove one when it benefits them.

Card swappers must be good at cupping their hand to conceal the hidden card.

Card Marking

Marking cards is one of the oldest cheating techniques in gambling.

This is used to define baccarat card values, so you know what’s coming next when looking at the card backs. An example would be if you marked all the 8s and 9s in the shoe.

An advanced method of card marking involves using special contact lenses and invisible ink. This ensures that the cheater can see the markings, but the dealer can’t with their naked eye.

Casinos have caught on to this technique, though, and they use special equipment to check for invisible ink. That said, marking cards is risky no matter how complex your system may be.

Chip Dumping

Chip dumping is another old cheating technique that can be used in baccarat or any other card game. This requires a player(s) and dealer to work together.

Baccarat Macau Pattern Chart

Here are the steps to pulling off chip dumping:

• The accomplice makes their bet worth $10
• They win their bet
• The dealer discreetly places another $10 chip on top of the winnings
• The accomplice wins the double their bet

This method works best when the dealer is working with an empty table, or at least one with 1-2 players. Fewer players cuts down on the chances that somebody will notice the dealer giving their accomplice extra chips.

Past Posting

Past posting, which involves adding chips to your bet after a winning hand, is another simple way to cheat baccarat games. This technique can also be used by a solo player or a dealer working with an accomplice.

But the cheater must also be good at sleight of hand to avoid drawing suspicion from others.

Like with chip dumping, a dealer and their accomplice stand a better chance of pulling this scam off when there are few players at the table.

Card Cutting

A card-cutting scam requires technology to spot card values as a cheater is cutting the deck. This is another technique that can be used with one or more players.

Here’s how to cheat when cutting the deck:

1. The scammer is offered the plastic baccarat cut card
2. They have a small digital camera located inside of their sleeve or on a ring on their finger
3. The cheater places the plastic cut card into the deck
4. The player fans through a portion of the deck with the cut card, separating the edges
5. The camera films the card values as they’re separated
6. This info is relayed to a computer program, which processes the information
7. The processed info is sent to the cheater and their accomplices through in-ear cellular devices

This scam is exclusive to baccarat because this game follows a strict set of rules on when the player and banker hit for more cards. In contrast, the number of cards in a blackjack hand vary based on the actions players take.

Therefore, information relayed from the computer program tells baccarat players exactly how to bet based on the upcoming card order.

Note:

Like false shuffling, the advantage of card cutting as a group is that you can maximize +EV. More players betting with a built-in advantage means more overall profits.

This also allows cheaters to pull their money together and create a bigger bankroll. They can then play for higher stakes while knowing the order of upcoming cards.

Dealers can combat card cutters by holding the shoe in a manner that makes it difficult for cheaters to fan through cards. If a scammer can’t properly fan with the cut card, then the camera can’t record and relay the values.

Placing a Digital Camera in an Automatic Shuffling Machine

One more baccarat cheating method involves placing a digital camera inside of an automatic shuffling machine. This relies on the same technology used in card cutting, where the camera relays card values to a computer program and returns the analyzed data to cheaters.

A digital camera inside of a shuffling machine is more lethal to casinos than card cutting or false shuffling. After all, the cheaters are receiving info on the entire upcoming 6- or 8-deck shoe, rather than just a portion of it.

But a solo player or group can also place the camera inside of an automatic shuffling machine when the perfect opportunity arises.

This is especially the case during later hours when fewer tables are running and less personnel is on the floor. A cheater(s) can come back the following day when the table is running.

The cameras must be small enough to where they can’t be noticed with ease. Of course, casinos can still find a camera if they become suspicious and look hard enough.

Such was the case in Macau in the early 2010s, when several casinos couldn’t figure out why they were taking heavy baccarat losses. They discovered that players had installed mini cameras inside of automatic card shufflers.

The cheating ring, which consisted of 7 Chinese nationals, won US$3 million before they were busted.

Edge Sorting – Cheating or Legitimate Advantage Play?

All the baccarat cheating methods that I’ve covered up to this point are explicitly illegal. No gambling jurisdiction or courtroom accepts any of these techniques as advantage play.

But edge sorting, or the process of identifying flaws on the edges of card backs, is ambiguous.

Edge sorting has many characteristics of legal advantage play, making it comparable to card counting, shuffle tracking, sequencing, roulette wheel bias, and video poker (on +EV games).

Here are steps on how to effectively use edge sorting in baccarat:

1. Some card decks have small irregularities on the long-side edges
2. Study card decks to identify these irregularities and how they relate to specific card values
3. Example: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 have full-diamond patterns on the edges; 6, 7, 8, and 9 have half-diamond patterns
4. Train yourself to spot these irregularities
5. Realistically, you need the dealer to rotate cards 180 degrees to spot the imperfections
6. This requires asking the dealer to rotate cards for you out of superstitious reasons (possible in high stakes baccarat)

DeadSpin notes that a skilled edge sorter can gain a 20.8% edge over the casino. This means that you’ll theoretically make a $20.80 profit when betting $100 per hand.

The most famous instance of edge sorting involves poker pro Phil Ivey, who worked with Cheung Yin “Kelly” Sun to beat casinos out of over $20 million.

Sun analyzed a specific Gemaco card deck and found design flaws on the card backs. She and Ivey used this info to crush Crockfords casino and the Borgata in baccarat.

They were gambling anywhere from $50,000 to $150,000 per hand. Therefore, casinos allowed them to make special requests, including the following:

• A Mandarin-speaking dealer, so that Sun could make requests without the casino understanding them
• Rotating the cards at 180-degree angles
• Using a purple Gemaco deck
• Only allowing this specific deck during the game

Crockfords reviewed the matter and withheld Ivey’s £7 million ($11m) in winnings as a result. Ivey sued the London casino and lost the case.

The Borgata originally paid Ivey $9.6 million in winnings. But they later sued and won the lawsuit.

Judges in both cases deemed that Ivey didn’t knowingly break the law by creating an advantage for himself. But they believed that the methods Ivey and Sun used – notably requesting a Mandarin-speaking dealer and asking for cards to be rotated – constituted cheating.

Furthermore, making requests in a language that floor supervisors don’t speak isn’t considered reasonable advantage play.

Ivey argued that both Crockfords and the Borgata agreed to the requests. And he felt that they turned a blind eye to the matter, knowing that they would either keep his losses or sue if he won.

The edge sorters convinced the judges in both cases that they weren’t nefarious baccarat cheaters. But they couldn’t convince the courts that they deserved the winnings.

Conclusion

One reason why baccarat cheating isn’t as prevalent as in other table games is because there’s not much equipment involved. It’s not like roulette, where you can track wheel velocity with devices, or craps, where you can load the dice.

Combine this with how mini-baccarat players don’t touch their cards, and you can see why it’s hard to cheat baccarat. But there are still ways for motivated individuals to cheat.

Some of these methods are as simple as past posting, chip dumping, and swapping cards. Others incorporate technology, like card cutting and placing cameras inside of automatic shuffling machines.

Certain cheating methods offer both simple and complex methods, including card marking (with or without contacts/invisible ink) and false shuffling (with or without devices).

These aren’t advantage-play techniques like card counting or shuffle tracking. Instead, you’re using technology, dealer cooperation, and/or sleight of hand to remove random chance and guarantee yourself profits.

Edge sorting is the only advantage-play technique that courts consider cheating without being illegal. But given that both Ivey and Sun lost court battles over the matter, it hardly seems worth learning edge sorting if there’s nothing to be gained.

I don’t recommend that you use any of these cheating techniques in a casino given the legal consequences. But I still think that it’s cool to learn about how far cheaters will go to beat the casino.